Adjusted ShotQuality (adj SQ) evaluates a team's shooting efficacy (adjOFF SQ) and defensive prowess (adjDEF SQ) adjusted for strength of schedule (teams facing tougher opponents see ratings adjust favorably, while those against weaker foes show a decline).
At its core, adj SQ is all about leveling the playing field. It gives you a richer, more nuanced look at ShotQuality by adjusting for the 'strength of schedule.' In simple terms, it considers who you're playing against. This is a two-sided coin:
Adjusted Offensive Shot Quality (adjOFF SQ): This measures how well a team is shooting, but gives you a more accurate picture by considering the quality of the defenses they've played against. If a team has faced mostly weak defenses, their adjOFF SQ will be lower than their raw Offensive Shot Quality. It keeps things real, folks!
Adjusted Defensive Shot Quality (adjDEF SQ): This is the flip sideโhow well a team is defending, again adjusted for the quality of offenses they've faced. Playing against top-notch offenses? Your adjDEF SQ will be higher, recognizing the tougher competition.
We've broken down the ratings into categories to make them super easy to interpret:
Rating | adjOFF SQ |
|---|---|
Excellent | 1.20 or more |
Great | 1.15 |
Above Average | 1.10 |
Average | 1.05 |
Below Average | 1 |
Poor | 0.95 |
Awful | 0.9 or less |
Rating | adjDEF SQ |
|---|---|
Excellent | 0.9 or less |
Great | 0.95 |
Above Average | 1 |
Average | 1.05 |
Below Average | 1.10 |
Poor | 1.15 |
Awful | 1.20 or more |
So, when you hear "Adjusted ShotQuality Difference," it's just the difference between adjOFF SQ and adjDEF SQ for a team, along with how they rank compared to the rest of the league for that time period.
Think of it like a balanced diet of basketball statsโsure, you could just eat ice cream (or rely on raw Shot Quality), but wouldn't you rather have a full, balanced meal (adj SQ) that tells you everything you need to know?
Offensive rating is points scored per 100 possessions
Defensive rating is points allowed per 100 possessions
ShotQuality offensive rating is expected points scored per 100 possessions
ShotQuality defensive rating is expected points allowed per 100 possessions
Net rating is net points (points scored minus points allowed) per 100 possessions
ShotQuality net rating is expected net points (expected points scored minus expected points allowed) per 100 possessions
The "adjusted" version of any of these metrics increases or decreases the metric based on strength of schedules. Teams facing strong competition will experience an improvement (increase to offense, decrease to defense, increase to net), teams facing weak competition will experience a decline (decrease to offense, increase to defense, decrease to net).
See on: ShotQualityWire, ShotQuality, ShotQualityBets
Used On: Glossary, TeamStandings, StatsExplained