Explaining ShotQuality’s New Win Probability Model

Hey there, hoops fans! If you've been hangin' around the ShotQuality universe, either on our website or Twitter, you've likely seen our iconic graphics. You know, the ones that give you the real score, the SQ Score, and each team's chances of taking home the W based on that SQ Score. 🏀

What's Shakin' with the SQ Win Probability Model?

Starting this 2022-23 NBA season, we're spicing things up a bit when it comes to that third magic number—win probability. So, what's the SQ win probability model all about? In layman's terms, it tells you, "Hey, given the quality of shots each team is taking, what are their odds of winning this nail-biter?"

How's It Gonna Work?

Let's keep it simple: it's all about the SQ Score difference at the final buzzer. When teams have a tie in their expected SQ Scores, it's a coin flip—each team has a 50-50 shot at winning. But as that SQ Score gap grows, so do the win odds for the leading team.

We kicked the tires on adding more variables like total possessions, but guess what? They didn't make the cut. Our one-variable model stood out, not just for its killer performance but also for its straight-up clarity.

How's This Different from the Old School?

In the past, we used what's called a binned model. Think of it as placing teams in different buckets based on their SQ margin of victory. For instance, if you won by 2 to 4 points, you'd generally have a 58% chance of victory. But here's the catch: this old model had some gaps and sometimes didn't quite match up with what actually happened on the court.

So, we rolled up our sleeves and went back to the drawing board. We used data from the last three NBA seasons and got geeky with some logistic regression to bring you a more precise model—one that's a continuous function and dialed into reality.

College Hoops, You're Up!

By the way, we've got the college ball scene covered too! NCAA games have fewer possessions, which means even a small SQ Score difference can be a game-changer. Win by just 5 SQ points in college, and you're looking at a 70% chance of victory. In the NBA, that's more like 61%.

Live Action Insight

But wait, there's more! We're also diving into live win probability models. These bad boys will keep tabs on the SQ Score and the game clock to give you real-time insights. Whether it's the NBA Finals or the NCAA championship, you'll see how team shot quality can swing like a pendulum throughout the game.

So, gear up for an even more exciting season with SQ's revamped win probability model. It's like your courtside ticket to the analytics game! 🎟️🏀

Published on: September 9, 2023