ShotQuality Points Per Possession (SQPPP)

Short Definition:

For players:

• Expected points scored per scoring opportunity (a true shooting attempt)

Long Definition:

ShotQuality Points:

• ShotQuality estimates the probability that any shot is made more missed, and credits the shooter with the expected points (ShotQuality Points) on that shot

• A 90 percent free throw shooter may shoot 8 for 10 in a game, but based on his 90 percent average, we credit him with 9 ShotQuality points, since we would expect a 9 for 10 performance if he took the same shots again.

• A 30 percent three-point shooter takes 10 threes in a game, and she makes 5. If she were to take the same shots again, we would expect her to make 3. So while she scored 15 points, we only credit her with 9 ShotQuality points.

• The underlying model considers complex basketball factors, like defensive impact, shooter ability, time and score, playtype factors, and more.

ShotQuality points per possession measures a player's expected scoring efficiency based on their ability and the quality of scoring opportunities. If we replayed every shot taken by a player, how many points do we expect them to score per opportunity?

Additionally, this metric helps eliminate the randomness in basketball, like hot and cold streaks, and better measure player ability and how well or poorly we can expect them to play in the future.

Technical Definition:

ShotQuality PPP is just expected true shooting percentage. Sum of SQ points divided by (2*[FGA+0.44*FTA]). The 0.44 is an empirically derived value used throughout basketball analysis.